Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Who will rule the 21st Century?
Who Will Rule the 21st Century?
by
Jack Welch
Straight-line extrapolation shows that China and India, with their faster growth rates, will eventually catch up to the U.S. in terms of pure economic size. But America has a final competitive advantage: its confluence of bright, hungry entrepreneurs and flush, eager investors; and its stable, highly adaptable system.
Originally published in Business Week magazine on July 2, 2007. Reprinted with permission.
We’re neither economic forecasters nor political prognosticators by trade, but you don’t have to be either to see that right now the U.S. holds a robust lead in the race for hegemony. Our economy is five times as large as China’s and 15 times larger than India’s, with about one-fourth the population of either nation. That gives the U.S. a real advantage in providing education, health care, and national security—plus all the other stuff that makes a country thrive. But “right now” doesn’t mean forever. All you need is a ruler to draw the straight-line extrapolation showing that China and India, with their faster growth rates, will eventually catch up to the U.S. in terms of pure economic size. For China, that would occur as early as 2045; for India, the date would be some 20 years later. Which is why you so often hear experts predicting that, by midcentury, the U.S. will be trailing the two new world superpowers. We'd say: Not so fast. Straight-line calculations about the U.S., China, and India are just that. They assume all three national will enjoy smooth upward rides. No recessions, no banking breakdowns, not political crisis, no disruptive social uprisings. Unlikely? For sure! With China's massive experiment combining communism and capitalism, India's entrenched bureaucracy and corruption, and America's long term entitlement obligations, it is far more probable that growth trajectories will zig and zag more than zoom. Further, straight-line calculations do not take into account relationships with other parts of the world, such as the Middle East, where changing alliances could have economic repercussions.Given that reality, then, what general scenario would you bet on for the next 50 years? Would it be America’s 3% annual growth or China and India at 8%? We’d take the U.S. for a simple yet incontrovertible reason. Its system—the sum of all its parts—works, and when it breaks, it bounces back fast. Don’t worry; we’re not breaking into The Star-Spangled Banner. We just believe U.S. economic dominance isn’t a function of how long the nation has been leading the pack. It’s about how America operates as a country. We’re talking, mainly, about freedom and stability. Political parties disagree, often vehemently, but the government never stops running. Generally speaking, the U.S. justice system is fair, and health care, while inconsistent in delivery, is widely available. And even though secondary education in America gets roundly knocked, we have without doubt the best system of higher education, turning out the world’s most skilled, innovative science and engineering PhDs. America has a final competitive advantage as powerful as it is unique: its confluence of bright, hungry entrepreneurs and flush, eager investors. Yes, China and India have ambitious people who dream of building their own companies, and, increasingly, more are getting the chance. (The U.S. venture firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers just opened offices in Shanghai and Beijing.) But neither China nor India comes close to the U.S. in terms of this “killer app,” and it will take years of venture capital flowing in before the Chinese let go of a rote approach to work and truly embrace entrepreneurial innovation. China has other challenges as well. Aside from its risky social experiment, it has an economy in which less than a quarter of its people truly participate, and its one-child policy is exacerbating the problems of an already aging population. India, meanwhile, will continue to struggle with its overwhelming number of have-nots and its aforementioned corruption. True, India is a democracy, but a democracy muddled by a profusion of divergent political parties. Now, we’re not saying the U.S. system is perfect or its economy invulnerable. If not dealt with, entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will create a budget deficit that will explode over the next 20 years. How America handles that problem via tax and spending policies will determine the strength of its growth engine. Fortunately, our stable, highly adaptable system has conquered enough major problems—from the Depression to the Cold War—in the past that there is more reason for optimism than despair. In the end, we’d make the case that American economic leadership will be with us for most, if not all, of the century. It will by no means “rule,” as it did at the turn of the 21st century. But it will remain ahead until other nations develop a total economic and social system that works as well. There’s a lot more to the world’s economic future than a straight-line extrapolation can tell you.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=memelist.html?m=7%23713
by
Jack Welch
Straight-line extrapolation shows that China and India, with their faster growth rates, will eventually catch up to the U.S. in terms of pure economic size. But America has a final competitive advantage: its confluence of bright, hungry entrepreneurs and flush, eager investors; and its stable, highly adaptable system.
Originally published in Business Week magazine on July 2, 2007. Reprinted with permission.
We’re neither economic forecasters nor political prognosticators by trade, but you don’t have to be either to see that right now the U.S. holds a robust lead in the race for hegemony. Our economy is five times as large as China’s and 15 times larger than India’s, with about one-fourth the population of either nation. That gives the U.S. a real advantage in providing education, health care, and national security—plus all the other stuff that makes a country thrive. But “right now” doesn’t mean forever. All you need is a ruler to draw the straight-line extrapolation showing that China and India, with their faster growth rates, will eventually catch up to the U.S. in terms of pure economic size. For China, that would occur as early as 2045; for India, the date would be some 20 years later. Which is why you so often hear experts predicting that, by midcentury, the U.S. will be trailing the two new world superpowers. We'd say: Not so fast. Straight-line calculations about the U.S., China, and India are just that. They assume all three national will enjoy smooth upward rides. No recessions, no banking breakdowns, not political crisis, no disruptive social uprisings. Unlikely? For sure! With China's massive experiment combining communism and capitalism, India's entrenched bureaucracy and corruption, and America's long term entitlement obligations, it is far more probable that growth trajectories will zig and zag more than zoom. Further, straight-line calculations do not take into account relationships with other parts of the world, such as the Middle East, where changing alliances could have economic repercussions.Given that reality, then, what general scenario would you bet on for the next 50 years? Would it be America’s 3% annual growth or China and India at 8%? We’d take the U.S. for a simple yet incontrovertible reason. Its system—the sum of all its parts—works, and when it breaks, it bounces back fast. Don’t worry; we’re not breaking into The Star-Spangled Banner. We just believe U.S. economic dominance isn’t a function of how long the nation has been leading the pack. It’s about how America operates as a country. We’re talking, mainly, about freedom and stability. Political parties disagree, often vehemently, but the government never stops running. Generally speaking, the U.S. justice system is fair, and health care, while inconsistent in delivery, is widely available. And even though secondary education in America gets roundly knocked, we have without doubt the best system of higher education, turning out the world’s most skilled, innovative science and engineering PhDs. America has a final competitive advantage as powerful as it is unique: its confluence of bright, hungry entrepreneurs and flush, eager investors. Yes, China and India have ambitious people who dream of building their own companies, and, increasingly, more are getting the chance. (The U.S. venture firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers just opened offices in Shanghai and Beijing.) But neither China nor India comes close to the U.S. in terms of this “killer app,” and it will take years of venture capital flowing in before the Chinese let go of a rote approach to work and truly embrace entrepreneurial innovation. China has other challenges as well. Aside from its risky social experiment, it has an economy in which less than a quarter of its people truly participate, and its one-child policy is exacerbating the problems of an already aging population. India, meanwhile, will continue to struggle with its overwhelming number of have-nots and its aforementioned corruption. True, India is a democracy, but a democracy muddled by a profusion of divergent political parties. Now, we’re not saying the U.S. system is perfect or its economy invulnerable. If not dealt with, entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will create a budget deficit that will explode over the next 20 years. How America handles that problem via tax and spending policies will determine the strength of its growth engine. Fortunately, our stable, highly adaptable system has conquered enough major problems—from the Depression to the Cold War—in the past that there is more reason for optimism than despair. In the end, we’d make the case that American economic leadership will be with us for most, if not all, of the century. It will by no means “rule,” as it did at the turn of the 21st century. But it will remain ahead until other nations develop a total economic and social system that works as well. There’s a lot more to the world’s economic future than a straight-line extrapolation can tell you.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=memelist.html?m=7%23713
MIT OpenCourseWare
http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/web/home/home/index.htm
MIT OpenCourseWare (OCW) is a web-based publication of virtually all MIT course content. OCW is open and available to the world and is a permanent MIT activity.
MIT OpenCourseWare is a free publication of MIT course materials that reflects almost all the undergraduate and graduate subjects taught at MIT.
MIT OpenCourseWare (OCW) is a web-based publication of virtually all MIT course content. OCW is open and available to the world and is a permanent MIT activity.
MIT OpenCourseWare is a free publication of MIT course materials that reflects almost all the undergraduate and graduate subjects taught at MIT.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Wow
Using blogger.com I've actually found some other foreign teachers here in Wang Cheng (Changsha).
Amazing!
Wo hen gao xing!
Amazing!
Wo hen gao xing!
2009
Recently, I received a job offer from Tianjin University which is located in Tianjin city and is right next to Beijing.
It would pretty much be the same gig as what I have here but for more money AND it's really close to Beijing which means I could go there on weekends.
I probably won't accept a new job until towards the end of November because this is the time when schools will be looking for teachers for the new semester.
Suzhou, Ningbo and Shanghai are still cities I am interested in but Tianjin wouldn't be too bad either....I think it would definetly be an improvement over Changsha.
I really just want to work for a school that has a lot of foreign teachers and foreign students so that I can have more of a social life.
Brandon
It would pretty much be the same gig as what I have here but for more money AND it's really close to Beijing which means I could go there on weekends.
I probably won't accept a new job until towards the end of November because this is the time when schools will be looking for teachers for the new semester.
Suzhou, Ningbo and Shanghai are still cities I am interested in but Tianjin wouldn't be too bad either....I think it would definetly be an improvement over Changsha.
I really just want to work for a school that has a lot of foreign teachers and foreign students so that I can have more of a social life.
Brandon
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Nothing new to blog about...
It's raining today....again!
The weather has been so weird and inconsistent recently.
It will be hot and sunny one day and cold and rainy the next....the weather is totally unpredictable and it's kind of annoying because I don't know how to dress in the morning.
I'll look out my window and see that it's cold and rainy so I put on several layers and then go out and teach for a few hours.
Then after I emerge from the teaching building the weather has changed to, not warm, but HOT so I have to shed a few layers...ugh.
Anyway, I'm still just kind of counting the days (more like the weeks) until my contract finishes here so that I can take a higher-paying job in a different city.
I actually might consider staying in Changsha if I get a higher-paying job and if I can live closer to the downtown area.
Right now I'm kind of out in the rural part of town and it takes me nearly an hour on the bus to get into the city...so, I do have access to the city but I'd prefer to just live IN the city!
I'm starting to widen my net a bit as well....Shanghai is still my number one choice but I'd be willing to work in Ningbo or Suzhou (which are both close to Shanghai) or even Wenzhou.
Changsha isn't a bad city or anything it's just that I've already been here for nearly a year and I'm ready for a change....again.
I'll definetly be in China for a while but I don't think I could stay in this area for much longer just because I know I could make more money in another city (doing the same job) and be able to mingle with more foreigners and NOT BE POINTED AND STARED AT......
The weather has been so weird and inconsistent recently.
It will be hot and sunny one day and cold and rainy the next....the weather is totally unpredictable and it's kind of annoying because I don't know how to dress in the morning.
I'll look out my window and see that it's cold and rainy so I put on several layers and then go out and teach for a few hours.
Then after I emerge from the teaching building the weather has changed to, not warm, but HOT so I have to shed a few layers...ugh.
Anyway, I'm still just kind of counting the days (more like the weeks) until my contract finishes here so that I can take a higher-paying job in a different city.
I actually might consider staying in Changsha if I get a higher-paying job and if I can live closer to the downtown area.
Right now I'm kind of out in the rural part of town and it takes me nearly an hour on the bus to get into the city...so, I do have access to the city but I'd prefer to just live IN the city!
I'm starting to widen my net a bit as well....Shanghai is still my number one choice but I'd be willing to work in Ningbo or Suzhou (which are both close to Shanghai) or even Wenzhou.
Changsha isn't a bad city or anything it's just that I've already been here for nearly a year and I'm ready for a change....again.
I'll definetly be in China for a while but I don't think I could stay in this area for much longer just because I know I could make more money in another city (doing the same job) and be able to mingle with more foreigners and NOT BE POINTED AND STARED AT......
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
10 weeks to go
It's nearly 11pm on Wednesday right now....October 29th, 2008.
As of now, I have about 10 weeks left on my contract and I'm still trying to decide if I should renew for a second year or look for a different school to work for in China.
I'm really considering working at a high school or University in Shanghai if I can get a pretty good deal and considering how much teaching experience I now have I think I can.
There would be some advantages to staying in this school. I'm familiar with the area, familiar with the students, I have a few friends, I could get a raise, etc.
However, I think I'd be better off in Shanghai, in the long run, for several reasons: No one would point or stare at me, I could earn more money, I could meet more foreigners, etc.
Also, I enjoy teaching ESL but I don't think this is something I want to do for the rest of my life.....if I were to work in Shanghai for a few years I think I'd be able to find another field of work to enter into and earn a better living.
Working here in Changsha for nearly a year has been a positive experience overall but I'm ready to move on and I think Shanghai is the place to be if I plan on staying China for a long time.
As of now, I have about 10 weeks left on my contract and I'm still trying to decide if I should renew for a second year or look for a different school to work for in China.
I'm really considering working at a high school or University in Shanghai if I can get a pretty good deal and considering how much teaching experience I now have I think I can.
There would be some advantages to staying in this school. I'm familiar with the area, familiar with the students, I have a few friends, I could get a raise, etc.
However, I think I'd be better off in Shanghai, in the long run, for several reasons: No one would point or stare at me, I could earn more money, I could meet more foreigners, etc.
Also, I enjoy teaching ESL but I don't think this is something I want to do for the rest of my life.....if I were to work in Shanghai for a few years I think I'd be able to find another field of work to enter into and earn a better living.
Working here in Changsha for nearly a year has been a positive experience overall but I'm ready to move on and I think Shanghai is the place to be if I plan on staying China for a long time.
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